Institute of Mathematics for Industry

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Modeling the effects of primordial prevention strategies on the transmission of multiples strains of Group A Streptococcus in Australian Indigenous communities


Hold Date 2020-02-25 12:00~2020-02-25 13:00

Place Lecture Room S W1-C-503, West Zone 1, Ito campus, Kyushu University

Object person  

Speaker Rebecca Chisholm (La Trobe University)

Abstract:
Group A Streptococcus (Strep A) is a diverse bacterial pathogen (>240 strains) responsible for superficial infections of skin and throat, precursors to both invasive and immune-mediated disease sequelae including rheumatic heart disease, and acute post-streptococcal glomerulonephritis (APSGN). Indigenous Australians have some of the highest rates of skin sores (81% of which are caused by Strep A), rheumatic heart disease and APSGN globally. Medical treatments trialled over the past 20 years have resulted in short term reductions in skin sore incidence, but benefits have not been sustained.    Primordial prevention strategies targeting potential drivers of infection (such as household overcrowding) may be a long-term control strategy. Quantitative evidence for the benefits of such interventions is presently limited, but is necessary to support decision making and advocacy. In this presentation I will describe some of the challenges our group has encountered in developing a mathematical model of Strep A transmission in Australian Indigenous communities that can realistically incorporate the diverse nature of the pathogen, population mobility characteristics, and the likely effects of primordial prevention strategies on the incidence of disease.  I will present some preliminary results of the impact of these interventions, and discuss some implications for policy, advocacy and control.