Institute of Mathematics for Industry

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Mathematical model analysis of “regime shift” in alpine vegetation caused by global warming


Hold Date 2019-11-14 16:45~2019-11-14 17:45

Place IMI Auditorium (W1-D-413), West Zone 1, Ito campus, Kyushu University

Object person  

Speaker Tetsuo YABUKI (General Education Department, Faculty of Economics, Hokusei Gakuen University)

The IMI Colloquium in November
 
Date : Thursday, 14 November 2019
          16:45-17:45
Place : IMI Auditorium (W1-D-413) (4F, West Zone 1, Kyushu University)
 
Speaker : Prof. Tetsuo YABUKI
              (General Education Department, Faculty of Economics, Hokusei Gakuen University)
 
Title :  
 Mathematical model analysis of “regime shift" in alpine vegetation caused by global warming
= Based on cooperation with field measurements and experiments =
 
Abstract :
Mathematical model analysis of the transition (regime shift) of the Daisetsu Alpine ecosystem, which is likely to be caused by climate change (global warming), was quantitatively analyzed in a realistic form, collating with data from field measurements and ecosystem recovery experiments. As a result, the following became clear

(1) Daisetsu (Hokkaido) snow alpine vegetation has a bistable structure, and its structure changes due to changes in temperature due to climate change, resulting in a regime shift (quasi-irreversible transition) characterized by hysteresis.
(2) Comparing the direct effect of warming in this transition (influence on alpine vegetation through photosynthesis change of temperature rise) and indirect effect of warming (influence on alpine vegetation through change of snowmelt condition of temperature rise), the latter is much larger than the former.
(3) The restoration of the alpine ecosystem (recovery of rare alpine vegetation by Sasa-cutting experiment by co-researcher Gaku Kudo) has the possibility that the initial soil moisture will gradually increase due to the cutting effect and the phase structure will be restored. It was found that alpine vegetation may recover stably for at least a certain period.

I would like to introduce the mathematical model analysis that clarifies the above.
(This work is supported by Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C) 15K00524 from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, (T.Yabuki)<2015~2018> and the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (D-0904) from the Ministry of the Environment, Japan. (G.Kudo).)